Altcoin Season Delayed Until 2026 as Macro Factors Reshape Crypto Cycles
The much-anticipated altcoin rally has been postponed, not canceled. Market veterans now point to mid-2026 as the new horizon for substantial altcoin appreciation, recalibrating expectations for the crypto cycle.
Raoul Pal observes that debt maturity extensions during 2021-2022 quietly stretched liquidity cycles. This structural shift pushed the traditional four-year crypto pattern into a five-year trajectory. The ISM index emerges as the critical indicator - when it crosses above 50, history suggests cascading rallies will follow through Bitcoin, Ethereum, and eventually altcoins.
"The banana zone got postponed," Pal notes, referencing the period of maximum altcoin outperformance. "We're looking at Q2 2026 for the liquidity cycle peak." This revised timeline contradicts bearish narratives, framing the current period as accumulation rather than decline.
